Let's Talk About the Math and the Final Title Showdown

The DNF Scenario: What Happens If Lando Falters?

Scenario: Max Wins All Three!

If Max Verstappen wins the Qatar Sprint (8 pts) and the Qatar Grand Prix (25 pts), and also wins the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix (25 pts), he nets the maximum 58 points, totalling 424 points.

For Lando Norris (starting at 390 pts) to be beaten, he would need to score 33 points or fewer across the remaining two rounds.

Conclusion: Even if Max wins everything, Lando only needs to finish 2nd, 2nd, and 2nd across the final two Grands Prix and the Sprint (scoring 18+18+7 = 43 points) to guarantee the title. Lando remains the favourite, but the margin for error is razor-thin.

Scenario: Lando Gets a DNF in Qatar!

If Lando Norris gets a DNF (0 pts) in the Qatar Grand Prix (the main event) and Max Verstappen wins (25 pts) and finishes P2 in the Sprint (7 pts), Max would gain 32 points that weekend.

This would put Norris's lead at just 390 - 32 = 40 points. This closes the gap to the point that the title would go down to the final race in the Abu Dhabi showdown at sunset.

Scenario: Oscar Wins All Three!

If Oscar Piastri wins all three remaining events (max 58 pts), he would finish with 424 points.

For Lando Norris to be beaten, he would again need to score 33 points or fewer. Given the current situation, Oscar's best shot at the title relies entirely on a DNF for Lando.

My opening comment to you and the theme of today's blog is simple: Just enjoy it. You may never see a finale this tight again.

The mathematical permutations for the 2025 World Drivers' Championship have just exploded, thanks to the technical failure that followed the Las Vegas Grand Prix.

Following the disqualification of both Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri for excessive plank wear, the championship battle has been completely reset. The title fight is now a furious three-way battle with just two meetings left—the Qatar Grand Prix (which includes a Sprint) and the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.

Driver Points Difference to Leader

Lando Norris (McLaren) 390 ---

Oscar Piastri (McLaren) 366 24 points

Max Verstappen (Red Bull) 366 24 points

Before the DQ, Norris had a 42-point lead over Verstappen. Now, the gap is just 24 points, and Verstappen is level with Piastri! With 58 points available across the final two weekends, this is an astonishing turnaround.

The primary concern for McLaren is now simple: Max Verstappen needs a perfect weekend and a bit of bad luck for Norris.

The math is brutal, but beautiful. The disqualification of the two McLarens over the 9mm plank rule has gifted Max Verstappen an unlikely opportunity. He is now right back in the fight, tied with Oscar Piastri on points and ready to pounce.

For McLaren, this is a test of nerve and engineering. They must execute flawless weekends in Qatar and Abu Dhabi while dealing with the immense psychological strain of knowing both their drivers and the reigning champion are breathing down their necks.

And as always, when the lights go out and the drama unfolds, here at Senate Grand Prix, there is only one winner, and that's you, the race fans!