The Great F1® Contract Conundrum

 

As the Formula 1® season break is in full swing, the usual vacation photos of drivers and their girlfriends are a welcome sight. But for those of us who follow the sport closely, a very different kind of drama is playing out behind the scenes.

With particular tensions centring around what is happening at Mercedes and the future of two of F1®’s brightest young talents: George Russell and Andrea Kimi Antonelli.

George Russell, who is delivering consistent podiums and race wins, finds himself in a genuinely fascinating position. His current contract with Mercedes is set to expire at the end of 2025. While he's publicly stated that it's a matter of "when, not if" his contract is renewed, the fact remains that a deal is yet to be signed. This has to feel like limbo for a driver who has performed exceptionally well and has been a cornerstone of the team's revival.

While the ghost of a potential Max Verstappen move to Mercedes fills our news feeds with countless speculations. Verstappen has reportedly committed to Red Bull; however, the rumours were so persistent and so loud that Mercedes boss Toto Wolff was forced to address them publicly.

This created an unspoken, yet very real, pressure on Russell and Antonelli. As Kimi Antonelli is on a one-year confirmed deal, both drivers are technically out of contract at the end of 2025, leaving considerable uncertainty in what is a very confusing time for drivers, teams, and fans alike.

The driver market is in a state of flux, unlike anything we've seen in years. With the new F1® car evolutions for 2026 only months away, and top-end technical staff and car designers making significant moves—like the legendary Adrian Newey to Aston Martin, and the abrupt end to one of the most successful team careers in F1® with Christian Horner's departure from Red Bull—nothing seems inevitable.

This volatility is creating a ripple effect. With eight seats yet to be confirmed for the 2026 grid, including the two at the new entry Cadillac, teams are holding off on major decisions.

They want to be sure of their success in 2026. This means a driver's value could change dramatically based on how their current team performs in the second half of this season, and the promises made for the future.

The pressure is also on for drivers in the Red Bull family, with Yuki Tsunoda’s seat at Red Bull far from certain, which in turn impacts the future of Liam Lawson and Isack Hadjar at Racing Bulls. Even Franco Colapinto at Alpine isn't secure.

This new reality, where the driver market is an open chess game, is a direct consequence of the massive technical changes coming. Teams are hesitant to commit to a driver for the long-term when they don't yet know if their car will be a front-runner or a back-marker in 2026.

And as always, when the lights go out and the drama unfolds, here at Senate Grand Prix, there is only one winner, and that's you, the race fans!